FREE FORM FRIDAY Welcome to the first Free Form Friday of 2010. Why Free Form Friday? Because this is going to be a random collection of thoughts that will not be in the same format from week-to-week. Sometimes it will be lists, sometimes a long column, sometimes some random firing of short thoughts. One constant will be picks from The Betting Man! (For entertainment purposes only of course) WEEK 1 PICKS FROM THE BETTING MAN
Friday September 3, 2010
Also, I am sorry that the Weekly Pick Em Contest is not functional for Week 1, but we will ready to go for Week 2!
The Bane of My Existence: Everyone these days seems to bang the BCS for being a garbage system, and I have been one of the few defenders of how things are currently run. My position is this..it's not perfect, but it's a lot better than what we had before, and I don't think that a playoff is as simple a solution as everyone else does. With that being said, let me tell you what the biggest problem is with the current 2-Team Playoff system. PRE SEASON RANKINGS. I find it very funny that these writers that complain about the BCS are in fact the biggest problem with the BCS. Their preseason rankings affect how many teams are ranked all season long particularly near the top. And when you take the strength of schedule into account to separate closely rated teams, the rankings can come to mean a lot. So when I see #15 Pitt go down, in a game that they were NOT favored in! I wonder how they can be ranked ahead of 100 other teams in Division 1..er..FBS Football.
Geeking Out: The temperature has cooled off here in Wisconsin this weekend, making it perfect fall football weather already. Add to that the first full weekend of college football, and a Monday off of work for the holiday, and yes I'm geeking out.
What I'm Looking Forward To The Most This Weekend: Brian Kelly's debut at Notre Dame... Boise State vs. Virginia Tech... The Rodgers Brothers vs. TCU's Defense... Texas Tech and SMU showing no signs of defense... UConn turning up the heat on RichRod... and Bucky starting off strong against the Rebels.
Lock: BYU -2 vs. Washington
Stock: LSU -7 ½ @ North Carolina
2 Smoking Barrels: Oregon State +13½ vs. TCU
Cincinnati +2 @ Fresno State
DEPARTMENT OF UPSET SECURITY
Thursday September 2, 2010
Everyone's favorite cabinet department is back just in time for the start of the 2010 season! For those of you unfamiliar with this official governmental department, the Department of Upset Security was put into action in 2009 to alert the college football masses of potential upsets on a week-to-week basis. The DUS uses a system similar to that of the Department of Homeland Security, with different colors serving as the measure for different 'threat levels.' Any questions can be submitted to Upsets@SaturdayFootballOnline.com
Threat Level Green: LSU Tigers (-6 1/2) @ North Carolina
A month ago, this game was listed as threat level orange. Now with scandals swirling through Chapel Hill like a Cat-5 hurricane, LSU Has been taken down to TL-G. Look for LSU to get after Carolina quarterback TJ Yates early and often in this one. If the Heels are to have any chance, Yates will need to have a HUGE game, and although we don't see that happening, the controversy may unite Butch Davis' boys in an 'Us vs. The World' mentality.
Threat Level Blue: TCU Horned Frogs (-13) vs. Oregon State in Dallas, TX
We listed Oregon State as one of our sleeper teams to watch this season. And despite the fact that Mike Riley's teams often get off to a slow start, and the fact that this 'neutral site' is in the heart of TCU Country, and the fact that TCU has one of the toughest defenses in the nation...look for the Beavers to give TCU a run for their money. The Rodgers brothers will be ready to show their stuff on the national stage. IF Oregon State can pull this one off, even an average game should move Jacquizz Rodgers into the Top 3 on your Heisman Watch List.
Threat Level Yellow: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12 1/2) vs. SMU Mustangs
Another one of our preseason sleeper picks makes the list. Texas Tech, along with Cincinnati, may be the two most overlooked programs in major conference football this year. BUT June Jones is ready to push SMU to the next level and recapture the glory days of the Pony Express. This one will be close, as I can see an underrated SMU defense making some plays early to knock Tech back on their heels. BOLD PREDICTION: one of these teams will outscore a World Basketball Championship team on Saturday night.
Threat Level Orange: Michigan Wolverines (-3) vs. UConn Huskies
This game is coded Orange for two reasons: 1. UConn is going to win this game and 2. Orange will be the color of Rich Rodriguez's flaming hot seat after the final gun goes off on this one. UConn has quickly turned themselves into a legitimate D-1 (err...FBS) program over the last 5 years. This win at The Big House combined with a run at the Big East Title this year will put their program on the map. But beware Husky fans, as I can see that success leading to the departure of Randy Edsall for bigger pastures.
Threat Level Red: Boise State Broncos (-2) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies in Landover, MD
If I were looking to bake an upset cake, I would need the following ingredients:
1 - Road team traveling 2,000+ miles
1 - Rabid crowd of 75,000 people
2 - Talented Tailbacks on the same team
Mix together ingredients in front of a national television audience and bake at 350 degrees for 3 and half hours.
Now the Broncos are a VERY good football team, but so is Virginia Tech. Boise State will have to put on a flawless performance to pull out a win here, and I can see Frank Beamer going Chris Petersen and pulling out a few tricks to win this one.
BIGGER AND BADDER
Wednesday August 25, 2010
We are just 8 days away from the start of the 2010 season, so we are putting on an all-out blitz leading up to next Thursday! We will be previewing all of the major conferences over the next week, to let you know who will finish where and why in 2010!
Today we are starting with one of the most interesting conference races this season -- The Big (11) Ten.
OHIO STATE (12-0, 8-0): As we announced last week, the Buckeyes are our choice to take home the National Championship this season, so it stands to reason that we expect them to win the Big Ten. QB Terelle Pryor is poised to breakout this season and show us what all that hype has been about since he started in Columbus. As integral as Pryor is to the team's success, the Buckeye defense will need to remain just as stout as they were last season, when they allowed only 12.5 points per game. If Ohio State can maintain their +17 turnover margin from a year ago, they've got all the tools to bring home the crystal football. They do have two MAJOR road tests against Wisconsin and Iowa, but they should be able to clear those hurdles and take home the Big Ten crown.
IOWA HAWKEYES (11-1, 7-1): The Hawkeyes have some big questions on the offensive line, and will need QB Ricky Stanzi to stay healthy, but I think that both of those questions will be dealt with throughout the year. But the key for Iowa will be their defense, led by Adrian Clayborn. Iowa also draws Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home this year, and Kinnick has always been good to the Hawkeyes.
WISCONSIN BADGERS (9-3, 5-3): This prediction goes into the 'I Hope I'm Wrong' category. The Badgers have an immense amount of talent coming back this season on both sides of the ball. RB John Clay is a dark horse Heisman candidate. Scott Tolzien is the best quarterback that Madison has seen since, maybe Darrel Bevell, and JJ Watt & Company spearhead a defense that allowed less than three yards per carry on the ground last year. BUT Bucky has a tendency to lose at least one game that they shouldn't. This year that game could come at Michigan State or at Purdue. Couple that with a loss to Ohio State at home and one to Iowa on the road, and there you have 3 losses for a team with much higher expectations.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (8-4, 5-3): The ageless wonder should have another solid season in State College. With the talented RB Evan Royster coming back, the offense should be at least above average, even if they decide to hand the reigns to true frosh Robert Bolden. Defensively the Lions did lose 3 starters at LB to the NFL Draft, but as we know PSU is always ready to re-load at the linebacker position. The biggest challenge for Joe Pa's boys this year will be their schedule, with their three toughest games coming on the road against Alabama (9/11), Iowa (10/2), and Ohio State (11/13). I will go on record as saying that Penn State will win their bowl game this year, no matter who they face.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (8-4, 5-3): Look for the Spartans to get off to a hot start, as they could very easily go 6-2 or better through mid-October. But their schedule is real tough on the back end with dates at Iowa (10/30) and Penn State (11/27). If Sparty can protect his home turf (as he usually does) look for Michigan State to be a surprise force in the Big Ten this year.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (7-5, 4-4): Last season, Purdue played the role of 'The Heartbreak Kids,' with a five losses of 7 points or less against some very good teams (2 point loss at Oregon), but they did manage to end Ohio State's outside chance at a National Championship appearance with a victory over the Buckeyes in West Lafayette. So lookout for Purdue and 2nd year Head Coach Danny Hope. After an opening week game in South Bend against Notre Dame, look for Purdue to build some momentum heading into their Big Ten schedule. And don't be surprised the the Boilers play in tight games each and every week.
THE REST
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (7-5, 3-5): The Wildcats just can't seem to get over the hump in the Big Ten. Look for them to play a couple of tight games against big name teams, and maybe even pull a big upset (see: Iowa 2009).
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (4-8, 3-5): RichRod's time in Ann Arbor may finally be done after this season. With a toss-up of average quarterbacks and controversy surrounding the program, look for Michigan to struggle again this year as Coach Rodriguez is led out of town.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (4-8, 2-6)
INDIANA HOOSIERS (4-8, 1-7)
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (3-9, 1-7)
Key Non-Coference Games
9/4: UConn @ Michigan
9/11: Michigan @ Notre Dame
9/11: Miami (FL) @ Ohio State
9/11: Penn State @ Alabama
9/18: Notre Dame @ Michigan State
Key Conference Games
10/2: Penn State @ Iowa
10/16: Ohio State @ Wisconsin
10/23: Wisconsin @ Iowa
11/13: Penn State @ Ohio State
11/20: Ohio State @ Iowa
11/27: Michigan @ Ohio State
RIP VAN WINKLE
Wednesday August 11, 2010
AUBURN TIGERS: In a conference that is chalk full of talent, the Tigers seem to get overlooked when it comes to the SEC Championship picture. Last year was a disappointment to say the least. After starting off 5-0, Auburn lost 5 of their last 8 games before winning a thriller against Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Head Coach Gene Chizik is back for his second season at the helm, and is looking to restore the Tigers program. Like last year, offense shouldn't be a problem for Auburn this season. The 2009 squad averaged over 30 points per game, and their hectic pace gives even the toughest defense fits. Look for Auburn to improve defensively with 8 starters back, and a VERY experienced secondary. With their only tough road test coming against Alabama in the Iron Bowl to close out the year (11/26) this team will have plenty of time to gel and could wind up representing the Western Division in the SEC Championship Game.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS: Last week, we revealed 3 ACC teams that would not compete for a National Championship this season. But in a wide-open ACC, we haven't forgotten about the Tar Heels, as a contender for the conference crown. Butch Davis has UNC on the revival trail, and has 19 starters coming back from last year's 8-5 squad. The Heels will face early tests against LSU (9/4) at a neutral location and Georgia Tech (9/18) in Chapel Hill. Those two games should be a real indicator of how close UNC is to glory. A big key for the Heels will be QB TJ Yates' ability to hang on to the football. Last year, Yates threw 15 INT's to just 14 TD's, and will need to be more effective if North Carolina wants to make a run.
OREGON STATE BEAVERS: Like the ACC, the Pac 10 is a complete logjam this year. Usually in situations like this, you look for a team that can pull big upsets at home, has a solid ground game, and has a little bit of star power to fill in the gaps...Enter the Oregon State Beavers. This season both USC (11/20) and Oregon (12/4) have to travel to Corvallis. The Beavers will be battle tested by then with early season match-ups against TCU (9/4) at a neutral location and at Boise State (9/25) that will build their mettle early. Star RB Jacquizz Rodgers is back after a 1,400 yard campaign in 2009. But like UNC, the Beavers have a bit of a question mark at QB, as Sophomore Ryan Katz will see his first consistent playing time, and figures to be tested early on. If he can be effective enough to keep teams from putting 8 in the box to stop Rodgers, Corvallis could be a very fun town to be in come December.
SMU MUSTANGS: Now many of you many not give a hoot about Conference USA football. And we aren't here to pursuade you to give a hoot, but we are here to tell you to watch the Mustangs whenever you get a chance this season. Head Coach June Jones enters his 3rd season in Dallas, and the program is already on a lot of people's radars. In 2009, the Run 'n Shoot offense was in full effect as the Mustangs ranked 15th in the country in passing yards and ended with an 8-5 record, that included 2 overtime losses to ranked teams (TCU, Houston). This year Sophomore QB Kyle Padron will continue to dazzle just as he did last year as a true freshman in the second half of the season. Padron threw for nearly 2,000 in just 6 games last season and had a TD-INT ratio of 10-4. Explosive WR Aldrick Robinson is back to lead the receiving corps that had 5 receivers with 30+ receptions a year ago. The big question in Dallas will be, who will replace RB Shawnbrey McNeal and his 12 TD's out of the backfield. Their schedule is also favorable with home games against Texas Tech (9/5), Tulsa (10/9), Houston (10/23), and a MUST-WATCH clash of styles when they travel to Annapolis and take on Navy (10/16).
THE CREAM ALWAYS RISES
Tuesday August 10, 2010
Sorry for the week-long delay folks, but we are back on track heading into the kick-off of the 2010 season with our top contenders for the National Championship this year.
BOISE STATE BRONCOS: Everyone's favorite non-BCS team is back with a vengence this season. The Broncos return 20-of-22 starters from a season ago. QB Kellen Moore is back, looking to throw for 3,500+ yards for the third straight season. Boise St has the potential to go undefeated this season, if they can get by Virginia Tech in their season opener (9/6). We will get more in-depth with this match-up as gameday approaches, but this is certainly no easy pass for the Broncs. After that early test, only home games against Oregon State (9/25) and Fresno State (11/19) stand out as even remote upset possibilities. What will end up keeping Boise out of the title game will be their lack of strength in the schedule department. ESPN will be doing their part however to keep Boise relevant this year, as they will be televising 5 Bronco games, including 3 on consecutive Fridays in November.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE: The defending National Champs are looking to keep their throne this season, but will certainly have an up-hill climb. It's no secret to the dozen of you or so that actually read this blog, that I am a big believer in the impact of bye weeks heading into big games. Well the Tide will be on the receiving end of this impact, as OVER HALF of their SEC games will be played agianst teams coming off of bye weeks. Couple that with their brutal schedule that includes Penn State (9/11), @ Arkansas (9/25), Florida (10/2), @ LSU (11/6), and Auburn (11/26), I don't see the Tide going unbeaten again this season. Thier offense will be explosive with QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram, and WR Julio Jones all returning, but they do have some big holes to fill on defense, including DT Terrance Cody, whose blocked FG against Tennessee last year preserved a key Bama victory.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES: I can't believe that I'm about to say this but, the Ohio State Buckeyes are my pick for the National Championship this season. Junior QB Terrelle Pryor leads 9 returning starters on offense this year, and should finally show that 'next-Vince Young' type ability this year. On defense, they've got manchild Cameron Heyward back on the d-line and a very experienced secondary. I will grant you that they have a tough schedule this year that includes games agains Miami(FL)(9/11), a night game in Madison (10/16), Penn State (11/13), and a trip to Iowa City (11/20), BUT they are just so talented on both sides of the ball, that I think they can get through the Big 10 undefeated and play for a National Championship, where for the first time since 2002, they are athletic enough to compete against anyone they should come up against.
I now have to go punch myself in the face.
We're back tomorrow with some conference championship sleeper teams and which teams that aren't on your radar will be the most fun to watch this season!
Thursday July 29, 2010
IOWA HAWKEYES: The Hawkeyes are poised to have another great season in 2010. Last year, they were able to answer a lot of doubters by replacing Shonn Greene with a two-headed monster of Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegner, both of whom return this season. But the key to the year last year, and again this year will be the health of Ricky Stanzi. I was in the stands at Kinnick Stadium when Stanzi went down against Northwestern, and the thousands in attendance seem to know immediately what that would mean for the remainder of the Hawkeyes' season. In order for Iowa to make a National Championship run, Stanzi will need to stay healthy and cut down on his turnovers. With all that being said the Hawkeyes have some key games at home against Penn State (10/2), Wisconsin (10/23), and Ohio State (11/20). That game against the Buckeyes should decide the Big Ten Championship, and without giving too much away for tomorrow's National Champoinshp Favorites list, I don't think Iowa will take down The Sweater Vest from Columbus.
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES/MIAMI HURRICANES/GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS: As you can see the second entry on today's list is actually a 3-fer. The ACC is improving overall, and that's why none of these teams will be able to compete for a National Championship in 2010. These teams will each play a home-and-home against the other two. In the cases of Miami and Georgia Tech, they will also have to play thse games in back-to-back weeks, and Virginia Tech gets to sandwich a game against the upstart North Carolina Tar Heels between Georgia Tech and Miami. All three of these teams will be a formidable match-up in big bowl games, they just won't be in the Big One. ESPN.com reported this week, that Virginia Tech is going to let QB Tyrod Taylor run the ball more this year as he did in 2008 (more on that next week). Miami's Jacory Harris could contend for the Heisman if he cuts down on his interceptions, and I never like to underestimate a Paul Johnson team. So be sure to keep your eye on all three of these teams this year, even if they aren't competing for the Championship.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS/NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS: Here's another multiple entry to the list, and here's why...One of these two teams will finish the season undefeated, but will NOT play in the National Championship Game. This will be your 2010 Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma has to replace Sam Bradford at QB, but in reality, they did that last year after Bradford got knocked out in the season opener against BYU. Landry Jones stepped in and did a pretty good job, especially considering that he was just a freshman. Their toughest regular season test will come in the Red River Rivalry game against Texas on October 2. Nebraska did lose manchild Ndamukong Suh on defense, but they will still bring back memories of the old 'Blackshirts' defense of years gone by. Zac Lee is back to lead an offense that returns 9 starters from a year ago and the Huskers' schedule sets up favorably with Texas (10/16) and Missouri (10/30), both at home this year. The Big 12 overall is a little down this year as Texas Tech, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all have to replace some big pieces on offense. Now the reason that neither of these teams will be playing for the Title is that I think they will be the weakest of 3-4 undefeated teams at the top of the rankings come season's end.
MESSIN' WITH SASQUATCH
Wednesday July 28, 2010
OREGON DUCKS: If there is one team that could overcome the current Jeremiah Massoli scandal it would be the Ducks. After enduring the LaGarrette Blount "Punch Heard Round The World" last year, Oregon showed their mental toughness by going on to have an outstanding season. This year they return Blount's spectacular replacement LaMichael James who will look to improve on his 1,500+ yard performance in '09. The biggest drawback to Oregon's '09 run is that despite their tough defense, the Ducks only had a +2 turnover margin for the 2009 season. Plus they've got three very tough conference games on the road against Arizona State (9/29), USC (10/30), and Oregon State (12/4).
TCU HORNED FROGS: To me, the Frogs are one of the most exciting teams to watch week-in and week-out. Their defense is out of this world. I don't care who you play, if you give up 12 points/game and less than 3 yds/carry, that's impressive. But who they play is exactly what will keep them out of the BCS Championship. Their strength of schedule is just too low. With BYU and Utah also looking at down years, even the marquee conference games will not help them. They'll have to wait until next year when we get to see that defense try to work its magic on the Blue Turf of future MWC Member Boise State.
TEXAS LONGHORNS: My preseason title pick from last year, the Horns came up one injury short of the National Championship. I firmly believe that if Colt McCoy plays the whole game, he would've hoisted that crystal football. This year McCoy is gone, so are Jordan Shipley, Sergio Kindle, and leading tackler Roddrick Muckelroy. Texas will be tough this year without a doubt, but they are just too inexperienced in some key spots to take home a championship. They've got the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma on October 2, and will travel to Nebraska on October 16 for their two toughest tests of the season.
FLORIDA GATORS: The biggest reason that Florida won't win it this year is currently residing in Denver, CO. The loss of Tim Tebow will by no means kill the Gator program, but it does mean that they won't be contending for a title this season. John Brantley will be a household name by October, but the Gators' losses on defense will haunt them as well. Brandon Spikes and Joe Haden have moved on to the NFL, turning the Gators from great to very good.
LET'S GET STARTED
Monday July 26, 2010
You can smell it. The sweat, the anticipation, even a hint of vomit. Either football is back, or it's 2am at a Fighting Irish kegger!
Whenever I read a book, for some reason I always read the last page first. There's no rhyme or reason to it, I just do. With that being said, let's start the 2010 season at SaturdayFootballOnline.com at the end. With my list of National Championship Contenders.
Now I'm not revealing my National Championship pick until Friday, but I'll lead up to it by revealing 5 groups of teams, and where they are at in the title picture.
Today's Group is the Kordell Stewart or the Hail Mary Group, because they have a remote chance, it's just not a very good one.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS: The Dawgs are a team that seems to have good seasons when expectations are low. It looked like last year may be the exception to the rule, but this season will make it the norm. Despite having 10 starters back on offense and one of the best receivers in the game in AJ Green, it's not UGA's year. Look for them to be in the Top 10 at some point this year, as they have 8 winnable games to start the year, the toughest of which will be in September when they travel to South Carolina and host Arkansas in back-to-back weeks. But expect their season to fizzle late with losses to Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech in 3 of their last 4 games.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS: Much like Georgia, Joe Pa and Company have a lot coming back on the offensive side of the ball. Evan Royster should come close to 1,200 yards again this year, and the Nittany Lions defense is no slouch either. The toughest obstacle to overcome for Penn State this year will be their schedule. At Alabama, At Iowa, and At Ohio State (plus they will make their first trip to Minnesota's new stadium). I'm not sure there's a team in the country that could run that gauntlet even if it's spread out throughout the season. If Penn State ends the regular season with 2 losses or less, I would be impressed.
WISCONSIN BADGERS: This may be painful to the 4 of you that are reading this, as you are most likely from Wisconsin, but despite our hopes, this is not the Badgers' year. Now I hear what you're saying, "Tolzien, Clay, the O-Line, the D is still tough..." I know. I know. BUT the Badgers have become well known for losing AT LEAST one game they shouldn't each year. This year I think that game may be at Michigan State on October 2. Then they'll have the emotion of Homecoming against Minnesota, Ohio State at home, and then a showdown against the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. Don't be surprised if they come out with two losses in October.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH: This is being posted to crush my own dreams. The last time the Irish had a new head coach, they went 9-3, and were one cheating Heisman Trophy Winner away from upsetting the #1 team in the country, in what was one of the best college football games in my lifetime. This time around the Irish faithful have a new coach that has shown prior success as a HEAD COACH to put their faith in. Plus 9 returning starters on defense and some electrifying skill players on offense. BUT, they still can't win at USC, and could lose at Michigan State and/or Boston College. But the echoes are stirring my friends, Notre Dame's return to glory has FINALLY begun.
